ASK THE DRAFT GURU

April 23, 2008

"These are a few of my favorite things'. Reggie Smith, DB Quentin Groves,DE/LB Red Bryant, DT Carl Nicks, OT Bryan Kehl, LB Tom Santi, TE Pierre Garcon, WR Anthony Alridge, RB Kevin Robinson, ST Mike Dragosavich, P And a real sleeper, Chaz Schilens, WR, San Diego St. Comments? – Lew A.

The first few along with Dragosavich are a few of my favorite things too.  But with eight picks, we can't have all of your favorites.

April 22, 2008

I know it seems like RB is a pretty set position right now, but it looks like this draft is very deep at the RB position and we could actually pick up a good one. With BJ coming into a contract year, Bradshaw flashing but not yet having played a full year, Ward Injury prone, and Droughns somewhat of a role player I was wondering what would be your opinion of the G-men drafting Ray Rice from Rutgers with the last pick on day one. Most of the mocks I've read have him going in round 3. I saw that your write up compared him to Tiki and I've seen other write ups that compared him to Maurice Jones-Drew. Those are some pretty good players (talent wise) to compare to. – Joe K.

Joe, I can't remember a draft when the running back class hasn't been deep. I really like Rice but (there's always a but isn't there?) I think the Giants have other more critical needs to address ahead of RB and if they did target S,CB,LB, DT that would take us too deeply into the draft to get Rice.

what about a scenario in which the giants trade shockey to the saints and the two teams swap 1st round picks with some other tinkering to be worked out. if either of the 2 defensive studs from USC are available at #10 this could interest the giants. new orleans with multiple needs doesn't lose that much in the player they get at #31. – Steve M.

I know the Saints are inquiring about Shockey, Steve, and trades are always a possibility.  But it's still purely speculative so I'll wait till it happens before I comment on it.

What do you think the possibility is that we pick up Josh Barrett in a later round? He is a very speedy and shifty guy with a huge upside at safety, but could provide us a viable option at punt returner right away. – Jimi D.

Sounds good to me, Jimi.  I'd take him anywhere from the 3rd round down, if the Giants think they can get him later than the 3rd round.

April 21, 2008

I read the that the Giants brought in Quentin Groves for a workout. What are your thoughts on him as a player and how he would fit into the Giants defense? From what I have seen and read he looks like a beast. I know the secondary is a concerned but I would personally like to see us take a LB first and move Kiwi back to DE. – Jeff S.

I saw that the Giants had Groves in but don't know it necessarily means much.  Remember, last year they never contacted Aaron Ross at all.  So, I expect some of these workouts are disinformation.

But to answer your question, I like him, Jeffrey, but he's a college end who is very light for end in the NFL.  Like Kiwi, he would either have to learn to play a new position by dropping back to linebacker or he would be a situational pass rusher only.  The alternative would be to bulk up, hopefully without losing much speed.

He needs more strength to play either position because right now speed is his whole game.

There's also the issue of the surgical procedure he had recently to correct a heart defect.  Supposedly, the procedure was successful and the Giants' doctors have no doubt checked that out extensively, but I don't know what their findings were.  I did check with a doctor and am told that the procedure Groves had is just about foolproof.  It's done once and the problem is eliminated according to the doctor.

If Strahan does come back for another year, moving Kiwi back to the line would once again make him a part-time player.  The Giants moved him to LB because they wanted to have their best players on the field.

APRIL 17, 2008

I've seen some film on Adarius Bowman, Oklahoma State. I realize that these are the "highlights" but really like this guy. Positives: Tall, strong, good hands, catches over either shoulder, fearless, goes over the middle, after the catch snaps to North South and heads for the end zone, shifty enough to make the first tackler miss, very difficult to tackle from the waist up, good blocker, seems to love the game. Negatives: Not a polished route runner, winds up catching many passes in traffic, had some character problems early in college career which seem to be behind him, has some difficulty with passes at the knee or over his head. I was thinking this guy would make a good possession receiver and has few flaws which seem to be coachable. Fourth round. Any thoughts? – Burt D.

I wouldn't consider him, Burt, though I can't say what the Giants will do.  Using your example of the fourth round for a receiver, players who might be there are Lavelle Hawkins or Harry  Douglas.  Other possibilities, though they might not be available in round four, are Will Franklin, Donnie Avery and Dexter Jackson. 

I think most Giant fans correctly think that we need a safety/corner player, the prototypical guy is Brian Dawkins. The closest player to that is Patrick Lee of Auburn. He has great speed and is very tough. I understand he was the "gunner" on the Auburn special teams. Do you agree? – Randolph W.

I included Lee in my write-up for the April issue of Inside Football and in my profiles, so perhaps you wrote this before they were available, Randolph.  Since you probably have that material  by now, I won't repeat it, but will add that, while I obviously like him, I wouldn't reach for him in the first round.  I think he can be had later and would be worth considering in the second round.

Recalling ex G.M. George Young's "Planet Theory" premise regarding the scarcity of big bodies on the planet, and being aware of Tom Coughlin's Boston College connection. I feel that there is a good chance that O.L. Gosder Cherilus will be the N.Y. Giant's round#1 pick at the 31st spot. You think? – George V.

I'd be surprised if the Giants took any offensive tackle in the first round, George, but I've been surprised by the Giants before.  Cherilus has played better on the right than on the left side, some of which may be due to inexperience on the left.  But I think he lacks the quick feet for left tackle and will end up playing on the right for some team.  The 31st pick seems awfully high for a RT who will only provide depth.  This is especially so with the Giants having other needs to address.

What do you think of DE Trevor Scott from the Univ of Buffalo. He converted from TE to DE his junior year. His combine numbers were superior, showing athleticism, speed and strength, but what really impressed me is that he appeared to be a "football player". He was very productive his junior and senior year with high numbers of tackles for losses and sacks. His apparent weakness is that he is thin. If I remember he was 6'6" but only 246 pounds. He could be a DE, and OLB or possibly a safety. – Paul S.

I have limited film on him, Paul, but he looks like a project.   I know some think he should move back to TE while others see him at LB.

Last reports have Strahan and Reese meeting but without a decision by Michael as to his return for '08. If the Giants conclude that it is likely that he won't be back, in your opinion, how does that impact the OLB position (Kiwi back to DE?) and the urgency of the team "need" at OLB vs. other positions (CB DT S)on draft day? – Nick H.

So if Strahan retires, pending word from the Giants to the contrary, I think Tuck moves outside full-time and Kiwi stays where he is. If that's the case, the need for another DE for depth becomes greater.

If my supposition is wrong and Kiwi moves back to end, then the draft would be impacted significantly.  As things stand now, the Giants need additional linebacker help for depth, not to start.  Again I'm assuming that Wilkinson will be the other starter on the outside.

Should Kiwi move back to the line, then both linebacker and safety would have to be considered top priorities.  Which position the Giants would address first would probably be dependent on how the draft looks as it nears their pick and which players they have ranked at the top of their board.

Pat’s Two Cents: Regardless of what Strahan decides, the Giants are not basing their draft plan around him. They’re drafting for the future, in my opinion, and Strahan obviously is not part of the long-term future considering his age.

April 15, 2008

How do you feel about Phillips of miami compared with decoud of cal. as value at f.s? the latter seems undervalued. The shockey thing is overplayed; if someone should offer a no. one pick which is 10 or 11 in the draft, JR would have to grab it but i think he would be just as happy if it didn’t happen. what is your on trading down because there is an awful lot of parity in this draft. -- Steve S.

I agree with you about DeCoud, Stephen.  I think he's undervalued too and I think the reason he's overlooked is that he only had one career interception.  (Phillips didn't have a whole lot either).  But DeCoud was at the Senior Bowl and I watched him all week in practices and the game and he picked off a couple of balls.  His hands looked OK there so ball skills may be less of a problem than most draft gurus expect.

Phillips, if he's there when the Giants pick, would have to be taken with the 31st pick or they wouldn't get him but DeCoud could wait till round two unless there's a big run on the position.

As for trading down, they are already at the bottom of the first five rounds but if some team wanted a specific player at 31, and the Giants picked up a couple of picks for the trade, that might be doable.  But I think one pick would have to be fairly high in the second round because they do have some specific needs.  But the Giants would have a feel for how the draft is shaping up by then so they'd know if they could still get one of the several highly rated players on their board with the picks they'd gain. 

Safety and Corner concern me. Is there any chance that the Gmen do 2 DB's in the first 3 or 4 rounds?? Most other positions seem solid. QB,RB,TE,WR,OG,C,DE,DT,LB. There aren't too many big ?????. Some smaller like Kiwi in his 2nd year at lb or can Wilkenson do the job. Which I think both will be fine. Depth on both lines is always a good way to go. As you are always looking for an OT that can play. Hard to find sleepers anymore, isn't it? Do you have any? – Stephen W.

Safety and corner concern me too, Stephen, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Giants take two or even three in this draft.  Ideally, they'll get a safety on the first day and then perhaps another somewhere on day two.  An additional corner could  be had either on the first or second day.

I think both Kiwi and Wilkinson should be fine also.  My husband and I just finished re-watching all of the Giants games from last season.  I think you might enjoy re-watching the last game of the regular season against the Patriots, if you have a tape.  Check out Wilkinson specifically.  He showed excellent speed, made plays behind the LOS and even chased Moss downfield.  I'm looking forward to seeing more of him.

As for sleepers, if I seem to be reluctant to name any it's because I don't know what really qualifies as a sleeper anymore.  The players I sometimes hear referred to as sleepers can't possibly be because they played in some major games, some of them even in a bowl game. 

My guess is that a sleeper is someone from a very small college but even then some of those guys were at the combine, eliminating them from sleeper status it seems to me.

I know that you have probably covered this in the current issue, but what do you think of Jamie Silva, the Safety from BC. He looked like a stud in the combine and there's alot of talk about his outstanding work ethic and intelligence. He appears to have a huge upside and will most likely be available on the second day of the draft. – Jimi D.

You're right, Jimi, I do cover Silva but I don't mind elaborating.  I love everything about Silva except his speed, which is very, very slow.  He ran in the high 4.7's at the combine and on B.C.'s pro day he ran again, once in the high 4.7's and the second time in the mid 4.8's.  That's awfully slow as you know. 

In Silva's case he doesn't play as slowly as he times because he understands the game so well, has terrific technique and instincts and plays every down as though it were his last.  He's the kind of guy that you want to see succeed. 

I can't see him playing free safety in the NFL but some team should take a chance on him at strong safety.  I know that if he doesn't make it, it won't be for lack of trying. 

I really enjoyed your 2008 Draft Preview as I think that you were spot on in your analysis of our needs and their priority. I completely agree with your "two safety" scenario as that is our weakest position hands down. Other than Phillips however, I don’t believe that there is first round talent at safety this year. But, I would consider safeties such as Justin King, or Josh Barrett in the second round. By the way, kudos to you for "telling it like it is" regarding the play of James Butler. He did not have an "overall solid season" as was claimed in one post-season review of the team (purportedly because Spags had kind words for him !). Far from it; his play spoke for itself. Keep up the good work. Mike A.

Thanks a lot, Mike.  We really appreciate your e-mail.

As you saw in the April issue we equivocated a little about Morgan because we weren't 100% confident that he should go in the first round either but, since we're at the very bottom of the first round, we thought he would be appropriate.  Since we're also at the bottom of the second round, we suspect a lot of safeties may be gone by the time the Giants pick.  So, if the team views their needs the same as we do, they may have to reach a little for a safety.

I like Barrett too but, because of injuries, he may slide some.  By the time the Giants pick in the second round, they'll know whether they need to reach for a safety--if indeed they value a particular player highly enough to reach for him.

I'm less high on King though I know he's often projected to go in the second round.  I wish he had stayed in school for his senior year because he might be a much better player by the end of next season. Right now he looks to me like he's all measurables.

April 11, 2008

I am a Giant fan in New Orleans. Several prevailing rumors are flying. One is that the Saints will trade the 10th pick to Philly for Sheppard and the 19th pick. Peter King says that the Saints (coach Payton-former Giant coordinator) still wants Shockey. From the Saints perspective, moving the 10th pick for Sheppard and then the 19th for Shockey is a pretty strong move (I do not see them trading the 10th pick for Shockey).If these unlikely rumors turn into facts, what do you see the Giants doing if they wind up with the 19th and 31st picks? – Andrew W.

That's getting so highly speculative, Andrew, that I don't think it's worth considering at this point.  Jerry Reese has said that Shockey will be a Giant in 2008 so I'm not considering anything else.  If that changes, I'll revisit it then.

Certainly the Saints need corner help but whether they plan to get that help in the draft or through trade I just don't know.  But I think there are some NFL ready corners to be had early in this draft.

Even though you say we have 3 starters at LB, How good can those LB's be except for Peirce? This is Danny Clark's 5th team in 9 years. Conner can be a long time solution at LB. I watched him alot at Penn State, the guy is an animal. If he slides to 31, we have to grab him. You may think we are good at LB next year, but what about the future? Kiwanuka is still up in the air at OLB. – Ryan C.

Ryan, I too have watched Connor at Penn State and all week at the Senior Bowl, in practices and in the game.  I like him; I've said I like him so I don't know what more I can say.  As I have said previously, my pre-draft article for the next issue of Inside Football specifically mentions Connor as a possibility if the Giants don't like who is available at positions of greater need.

As for how good Kiwi and Wilkinson can be, I think we'll have to let the season play out to really make that determination. If both prove to be good next year -- and I believe there's an excellent chance of that happening -- that takes care of the immediate future as both are very early in their careers.

Hi, Enjoy reading your replies but disagree with you about drafting a LT in first round even if we trade up to do so. If we don't keep Eli vertical we can't go all the way again no matter how good our D is. -- Alan C.

As Jerry Reese pointed out, the Giants won the Super Bowl with their offensive line.  Why would you expect the offensive line to regress in the 2008 season?  That line kept Eli vertical enough to win a Super Bowl.

Besides, trading up high enough to get one of the top guys could cost the Giants much of their draft so how would you propose to do it?  And who would you take?  And who on the current line would you bench? Or would you put your pick on the shelf for next season?

Jake Long, usually considered the top offensive tackle in this draft, doesn't have the elite footwork of most of the top left tackles who have gone before him.  Many think he'll end up at right tackle.

If some tackle that the Giants really like should drop to close to their pick, perhaps they would make a trade to get him.  That's always a possibility with any position in any round but right now the likelihood of getting someone like that just doesn't seem that likely. 

But, you know, Alan, what strange twists the draft takes, and I don't claim to see the future, so getting a tackle (or any other position) can't be ruled out.

April 8, 2008

Last night was a consensus draft meet by a bevy of ancient giant fans. the feeling is that Mr. could afford to be very active in this draft and could aim at trades giving him a chance at mayo Tyrell Jackson porter. Geddes, Webb, Dexter Alexander branch among a few others. it was felt by the group that Shockey will not fit in here in n.y and that he .moss Droughns and even venerable McQuarters could be used to open up that second round. of course we did something similar last year when that veritable genius g.m wrote a concerto at the draft. what do you think? -- Steve S.

I agree that the Giants are in a relatively enviable position and could afford to bundle a few players to trade up but I'm not sure they need to, or that there's any single player worth trading up for, Stephen.  If there's one particular player on whom they've set their caps, then maybe, but this draft has good depth at many positions and I don't think the Giants will need to do a lot of trading to get some quality picks.

I too would like some of the guys you and your friends mentioned-Tyrell Johnson, to name just one.

As for Jeremy, it doesn't sound like the Giants wish to trade him based on the statements that have been issued, and he fills an important niche for the Giants. He couldn't be replaced by anyone in this year's draft and his absence would create a void that Boss, at least so far, can't fill.  Shockey does take a lot of abuse from the media, but I've seldom heard anyone speak out in defense of his teammates more than Shockey.

You mention Mayo but I don't really see any linebackers who would beat out the Giants' presumptive starters-Kiwi,  Pierce and presumably Wilkinson, and I wouldn't trade up to get a backup.

If Dan Conner is available in the 1st round, do we pass him up? – Ryan C.

I like Connor and love his versatility but the Giants already have three solid starters at linebacker (I'm assuming Wilkinson will start this year) so the need is for depth, not for someone to start.  That's awfully high to take a backup though, like you, I think he'd be tempting.  In fact, in the article we're writing for the April issue, Connor is a guy we specifically mention as a possibility if the Giants don't like what's available at either safety or corner.

Do you think the Giants have a shot at DT Trevot Laws of ND or S Kenny Phillips of Miami in the 1st round? I think Safety and defensive tackle are two positions that could use some help. Thanks, Mark B.

Trevor Laws is expected to still be there but you know that the draft always takes a few strange twists and turns and guys not expected to go high, end up doing so while others drop like a stone.  But my best guess, and that's all it is, is that Laws should be there when we pick. 

A lot of teams need safety help so Phillips may not last, especially considering how few first round quality safeties there are this year.

I like both players and especially love Laws' hustle but wouldn't go for him with our first pick.  We need depth at tackle but not a starter.

Please tell me who would you like to see the Giants draft more in round two and will these guys be there? DT Dre Moore from Maryland, or WR, that’s right, WR Chris Johnson East Carolina, and tell me why. – Bill B.

It's hard to say who I'd like the Giants to take in round two because I don't know yet who they'll get in round one but I think they have greater needs at other positions.  So, I wouldn't take either one though I doubt Johnson will be there anyway.

Chris Johnson is a running back who rushed 236 times in 2007 and caught 37 balls so I see him at this point as primarily a running back who can catch.  I know he's considered by some to be a wide receiver in the NFL but I think he'd be developmental at receiver.  But whatever position he ends up at in the NFL, he was the fastest player tested at the combine so I expect he'll go high.

Dre Moore tested very well at the combine but his on-field performance has been inconsistent and I wouldn't take him or any other defensive tackle in round two. 

April 4, 2008
Nobody likes to recycle information and forms more than attorneys (of which I happen to be), but have you looked at your scouting report for Ahmad Bradshaw lately? My recollection is that you said he has deficient explosion and speed! Are you kidding me? Maybe that was the scouting report before, but it can't be now. You should update your work, don't you think? – Randolph W.

I can't believe you're seriously asking me to go back and rewrite a draft projection written more than a year ago because to do so would be the height of hypocrisy as well as a serious breach of professional ethics. That would be tantamount to some pundit who projected Ryan Leaf to be a great QB in the NFL later going back and rewriting his projection to say he knew he'd never amount to anything.  C'mon, that's revisionist history.

As for what I wrote then, I stand by it.  I didn't say Bradshaw had deficient speed.  It was about average based on his performance on the field at Marshall along with his tested combine speed which was 4.55.  Elite speed is under 4.5. Look at all the backs in this year's draft who run faster than 4.45.  McFadden just ran 4.33 and he isn't even the fastest in his draft class.  Again his explosion wasn't out of the average for his draft class-at the combine or on the field at Marshall.

The thing that surprised me in Bradshaw's game this year was how strong he is.  I said he could "break arm tackles and gain positive yards after initial contact."  But I never saw his extraordinary strength until he took the field with the Giants.

One final thought:  I think the Giants' coaches and scouting staff saw pretty much the same thing I saw and reflected in my projection.  Otherwise, do you really think they would have waited until late in the seventh round to select him?

Did you hear any rumors about a kid named Franklin at the NFL combines in Florida recently, if so what gives? – Richard J.

It sounds like you may be referring to Will Franklin, the wide receiver from Missouri as he certainly excited comment when he ran a 4.38 forty-yard dash at the combine.  He's fast all right but not yet a complete package in my mind.  His hands are inconsistent as he demonstrated at Mizzou and in practices at the E-W Shrine game.  He isn't a good route runner or much of a down field blocker, but his triangle numbers are terrific.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him go higher than his on-field performance would warrant because teams will think with his ability he can be molded into a top flight receiver. And they may be right.

If the Giants have a need for a safety, but depth is needed at corner...isn't a guy like Reggie Smith just what they are looking for? I haven't seen many people mention his name yet. Your opinion? – Kent L.

I like Reggie Smith but he's been moved back and forth between CB and S so it may take him a little while to settle into one position and refine his technique at that position.  He seems to be a very bright guy so that may not be a big issue.  I think I'd look at him in the second round if he's still available though there's some thought he may actually go mid-first round.

APRIL 1, 2008

I keep hearing that the Giants may pick an OT in the first round. It seems a little odd to me to draft an OT 3 years in a row. I like the line as/is and despite having an awful pre-season last year, Whimper looked like he we doing ok when he came in late in the year. If an OT is the best available talent, then maybe. The only other way I could see getting an OT would be if they are afraid that Snee may be gone next year and Diehl has to move back to guard. That could very well happen, Snee would get huge money if he makes it to free agency and although I've never heard this, I don't think I'd have all that much fun if I was coached by my father in law... Those may be reasons why Snee wasn't locked up years ago. – Dave B.

I'd be astonished if the Giants took an offensive tackle in the first round because they have little need at OT and more pressing needs to address. My husband occasionally shows me some draft projections of some "guru's" assessment of our needs and it often seems to be off-base.  Remember last year we were to take Staley (49ers) in the first round and were in fact blasted by one draft expert for not doing so.  I don't put much-if any-stock in these things.

That said, we don't know what the Giants think of Whimper or Koets but I believe they are working on a contract extension for Snee.

As to how much fun it would be to work for your father-in-law, I don't know but it would seem to offer pretty good job security to me.

I would tend to agree that DB is our greatest area of need and also that "best defensive player" is probably the way to go at the end of the 1st round. I'd also like to make a case for WR with that pick. If all the "impact" defensive players are gone and a wideout with Stephen Smith's skill set and a little more size were available, such a pick could make a great deal of sense. After all, Toomer and Burress are both in their 30s and I get a little nervous at the thought of a season ending injury to any of our top 3 WRs. Are there any such possibilities this year? – George Z.

This is a very unusual draft in that there are no consensus first round quality receivers available, with the possible exception of Devin Thomas.  So, I don't see the Giants looking for help at receiver on the first day.  And, as you've said, our need for help in the defensive backfield is paramount.

Like to know your thoughts on Indiana corner Tracy Porter. Seems to be a good fit for the Giants. Good cover corner with speed and he can return punts. Do you think he'll still be there for the Giants 2nd round pick ? - Scott L.

Like you I think he's a good fit for the Giants and don't expect him to go before the second round.  Whether he would last until our pick, of course I can't know.  I watched Porter a lot at the Senior Bowl practices and in the game and for the most part liked what I saw. 

In fact, you've jumped the gun on us, Scott.  For the April issue of Inside Football my partner and I write a long, usually convoluted, article on our rationale and who we think the Giants might pick in the draft. We've included Porter as one of several possibilities in the second round.

I've read and heard lots about need vs value. I lean to value, myself. However, an article in PFW's draft magazine spoke not only of those two considerations, but pointed out that players must fit the team's system. For instance, a 4-3 DT may not be useful to a team using a 3-4. (See the Jets) This idea also seems in sync with the idea that a team may pass on a more talented player, to pick a player with almost the same talent, that fits that teams needs. Do you think this is something Reese may be doing? And what are your thoughts on the subject? --  Don P.

To answer your question, I think how a player fits into the team's scheme is something that has to be a primary consideration for GMs. Some of the players in this draft have worked out at more than one position at the combine and/or on their pro days because coaches and GMs want to see how they'll fit into their scheme.

You're no doubt aware of cases where a newly hired coach decides to change the defensive scheme, such as Eric Mangini did when he was hired by the Jets.  He switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense even though his personnel was better suited to a 4-3. Jonathan Vilma, a Pro Bowler in a 4-3, was unable to play effectively in the new system and is now with another team. And according to reports the Jets are shopping Dewayne Robertson because, though he has the size, he lacks the stoutness and power to play nose tackle in a 3-4 base defense.  In this case two first round picks were both rendered superfluous by a switch in defensive scheme.

Another example would be that of a corner with good skills but lacking top speed to be effective in press coverage.  He might still be a good fit in a scheme that uses cover-2.  (In the cover-2 greater speed is necessary for the middle linebacker who often has the deep middle coverage).

And that's also the flaw in a lot of mock drafts that you'll see since they'll frequently project a 4-3 DT to a 3-4 team for example.

March 28, 2008

Obviously drafting the end of the 1st round has its downside in terms of talent availability, but given the enormous cap $$$ being spent on the untested players selected early in the 1st round, there seems to me to be a glass half full consideration that the Giants would have a distinct advantage when it comes to securing their long-term future success ... more $$$ to secure up and coming players to long term contracts (Tuck), and the pursuit of free agents, including UDFA's. Add to that the lower fan expectations game ... the draftee isn't expected to be the franchise saviour right away ... it seems that the late first round draft position might strategically be the best place to be for continued long term success. – Nick H.

You're certainly right about the enormous amount of money being spent on the early picks, Nick.  From what I'm hearing, some of the teams with top 10 picks are trying to trade down and having a hard time finding any takers.

I think that the Giants policy about signing their own players before they become free agents is a sound one because once they become a free agent there always seem to be teams who will pay far more than a sensible evaluation of that player's worth would indicate.

I don't necessarily agree that drafting at the bottom of the round is necessarily beneficial, but I hope we're in that position.

What is your opinion of Keith Rogers from USC? He's projected to be a top 15 pick. Do you have any historical data on teams trading up in the first round? Or roster players being traded for top third of the 1st round picks?—Louis S.

I'm assuming you mean the linebacker Keith Rivers from USC.    I too think he'll go high but I don't believe Rivers has really played up to his measurables.  Also he's only played on the weak side and we already have Wilkinson who looked pretty good to me in his limited opportunities last year. So I expect the Giants are looking for depth, not another starter at that position.

It would cost a great deal to trade up that far.  Though I don't generally use the comparative points per pick criteria established a few years ago, it's a helpful tool to explain this move.

Using the chart a #15 pick is worth 1050 points in the first round.  The 31st pick is worth 600 points and the Giants second round pick is worth 270 points. Based on this it would take more than the Giants first and second round picks to get him so it just isn't doable as far as I'm concerned.

I think the historical data about trading up is becoming more and more irrelevant.  With the enormous cost of signing the top 10 players, more teams seem to be trying to trade down and, as I mentioned to Nick, they aren't finding a lot of takers this year.

I'm a draft geek and my studies have me hooked on an unknown LB/DE from Clark (Atlanta) named Curtis Johnson. This might be the kind of guy who could flourish in our system as a pass rushing LB. You think NY might be interested? – Jeff H.

Jeff, Clark Atlanta is pretty heavily scouted this year because there are a couple of players of interest from there, Curtis Johnson being one of them.  I have no way of knowing if the Giants would be interested in him but, like you, I find him intriguing.  He ran 4.69 at the combine which would be just a touch slow for a pass rushing LB and he weighs 242 so he would have to play linebacker in the NFL. 

Another problem might be that the Giants want someone who can contribute right away and Johnson needs work.

Please give me your opinion on the following players, Dexter Manley II from West Texas A & M, and William Knepper from St Frances Indiana, do they have a chance in the NFL? – William B.

Probably not but I expect someone will give Manley a workout just based on his name.

March 25, 2008

Assuming no further significant free agent signings what positions do you see as the greatest needs to fill on the first day of the draft? Is it more probable t hat they will go with the best available player without regard to position? What about trading up? I'm sure I'm one of countless others with the same questions. -- Stan K.

I think our primary needs are safety, corner and linebacker, though three positions takes us into the second day this year.  As to what Jerry Reese and crew will do, Stan, I don't know because they play their cards close to the vest.  They might take the best player available at any position of perceived need but I'd be surprised if they took a flyer on someone in a position that we don't need.  But, that said, in this Jerry Reese era more surprises may await us.  The Kiwanuka move before last year's draft took everyone by surprise.

If they have targeted someone that they feel is a "must have" guy, it's possible that they might trade up to get him.  The Giants only have a few real needs, the rest are for depth and those players are always available late in the draft process or even as free agents.  So the Giants could afford to trade up this year but I don't know if they would.

Why should Lion fans care, when the owner has his been counter (Millen) making all the draft picks? -- Daniel O.

Beats me, Daniel.

It seems that all the draft publications I have been reading treat all the defensive backs like toads, some with more warts than others, but all with at least a number of them. I realize that there are no "sure thing" when dealing with the jump from college to the pro's but this sounds like a complete crap shoot with a third round pick no worse than a first round pick. They also agree on the fact that the safeties are much weaker than the cornerbacks. So with a definite need in the defensive backfield do the Giants go with a linebacker instead in round one and then roll the dice from the second round on? I would appreciate your thoughts on this years approach. Thanks Bob P.

Bob, I'm not sure which draft publications you've been reading but I would disagree that the cornerback class is made up of a bunch of toads.  On the contrary, I think this is a good, deep class for corners and I would expect three or four to go in the first round.

The safeties may be the weakest position in this draft with no true first round pick though I'd take Kenny Phillips at the bottom of the first round if he's still there.  In the second and third rounds I think there is some value at safety.  It may be that the publications you're reading are trashing the safeties because in recent years there have been some excellent safeties who have gone in the first round.

So, to answer your question, if safety doesn't look doable in the first round I would look next at cornerback and hope that one of the top guys remain.  I see those as more critical needs than linebacker.

If both fail, I'd look to the linebackers.

Where do you see the Giants going with their 3 first day selections? – Michael M.

Mike, Please see my response to Bob as he asked virtually the same question.  But remember it's only two rounds on day one this year.

How much of a disadvantage will the Giants have since they started late in the draft process following the Super Bowl? – Jeff H.

It's certainly a disadvantage to pick late but the system was designed to be that way.  As for starting the draft process late, you can put your mind at ease Jeff because they didn't.  Jerry Reese and all the Giants' scouts were at all the all-star games and of course the scouts have a territory they are responsible for and cover on a continuing basis.

If the Giants do not take S Kenny Philips in the first round (many mock drafts project him to be taken before the Giant's pick), what other safeties do you see as possible alternatives, either in the 1st round or later? – Joe K.

My partner and I are mulling over that very thing (and arguing over it I might add).  Phillips is our clear choice if he's still there.  My partner also likes DeJuan Morgan in the first round but I might look elsewhere.  If the Giants pass on safety in the first round, I believe there are several solid second to fourth round safeties available.  My concern is that because this is a weak draft for safeties there could be a run on the position. 

in the aftermath of what has to be considered the best draft of any team since its inception, I have the feeling that jr will surprise all of us with a large pro portion of his draftees coming from small schools. I think the giants will be heavy at dt and will add to the de end supply as well as safety and wr; but this year will go back to the George era of best available athlete. what do you think? -- Steve S.

Steve, I agree that 2007 was an excellent draft but think it's premature to call it the best draft ever.  I remember a Steelers draft in which they drafted three Hall of Famers and added another as a free agent all in the same year.

I don't think I can or should try to second guess what Jerry Reese will do this year but expect it will be solid.  As for drafting the best athlete available, I think that has to be balanced by a team's needs.  Teams have taken the best athlete approach in the past and in some cases it resulted in a lot of fine looking specimens who didn't play very good football running around the field.  

There are a lot of small school players in this draft and they're pretty well known to everyone so whether we'll get one or more, I just don't know.

Since we all seem to agree that the Giants will be looking for OLB, CB, Safety, and DL (not necessarily in that order) I would be curious as to how the talent depth looks at each of those positions. Also, with Jeff Feagles in the twilight of his career, are there any outstanding punter prospects who might still be around late in the draft? Finally, any late round wide receiver "sleeper" out there? – John K.

CB is one of the deepest positions in this draft and safety one of the weakest, if not the weakest.  There are a lot of good defensive linemen at the top, especially at defensive end.  OLB looks weak.

Punters seldom go high so I think there should be some quality available late in the draft.

Though I watched 32 hours of combine coverage I never saw a moment of the kickers and punters but the rumors indicate that Durant Brooks didn't have a great combine and redeemed himself on his pro day.  He's considered to be draftable and the rest may be free agents.  Like you, I'd like to see them bring another punter into camp, possibly Larson or Dragosovich.

As for sleepers, most of the players I generally see referred to as sleepers are too well known to everyone to be considered legitimate sleepers.  I've seen WR Jerome Simpson from Coastal Carolina referred to as a sleeper after he participated in the East West game and the Senior Bowl.  He's no sleeper. I was there and so were many others, watching and taking notes.  So I'm unsure what a true sleeper really is anymore as virtually every school is so well scouted.

I think if the LSU DT Dorsey falls out of the top 5 on draft day, the Giants should make a call to the Pats about moving up. I'm sure Jerry wants to keep all his picks but I think adding a monster DT in the middle of our D-line could make the Giants D as a whole pretty scary. With all the double teams that Tuck and Osi will be drawing, I think Dorsey could be dominant. What are the chances of the Giants moving up? Even if they stay put, do you think they will look DT anyway, Trevor Laws maybe? – Jeff S.

I expect I love Dorsey as much as you do but I don't think we can move up to get him even if he drops some.

There are two issues here, one being the rumors that his tibia isn't healing properly.  That said, he certainly seemed healthy in the BCS Championship game.  But even if he is healthy, moving up to get him would be the equivalent of the Ricky Williams draft in which Mike Ditka virtually traded away his draft and his career.

I like Laws and he should still be there when the Giants draft. I like Sedrick Ellis even more (though he should go early) but I think we have more compelling needs to be addressed in the first round.

I loved last years draft class. How can we reproduce the quantity of quality players? Is it a luck or are we on to something? – Phil H.

While the Giants may not be able to equal the productivity of last year's draft, I think we're on to something.  Jerry Reese gets a lot of credit for his first draft, as he should, but the Giants' scouts also deserve credit.  I've long thought they were a top notch group and obviously Jerry did as well.  When he was first named GM, no scouts were let go and several were promoted.  He comes from the ranks of scouting so he may listen to their opinions more than some GMs, though I certainly don't know that to be a fact.

I’ve been reading various reports that the giants should draft a OT first(slide Diehl to guard), but how is guy whimper doing?? when drafted he supposed to have quick feet, potential ol (lt),etc. and just needed to get stronger and work on technique a little-he's been with them a couple of years-so is he a career back-up type or starter type ? -- Roger B.

That's a question I wish I could answer because I've been wondering the same thing.  He got on the field some last year as a bunch tight end in goal line situations and I thought he acquitted himself well.  I'd be very surprised if the Giants took an offensive tackle in the first round but later in the draft, if anyone good remains, I wouldn't be adverse to taking one. 

We know even less about Koets, who I believe was only active for one game last year.

I hope MLB Dan Connor could be the Giants first pick. No Cornerback, Safety, or OLB in this years' draft is worth a first round pick (all CB's, S's, and OLB's remaining by the 31st pick are later round talent). Why MLB Connor? Because, depth in the middle is needed, and the front seven should be made sure to remain as the powerhouse of the Giants defense (as it was throughout the 1980's). Can't keep Pierce sucking wind and doing everything all of the time. Need to give Pierce more rest time with a strong reliever for him. Blackburn is reliable but can't bring to the table what Connor can. Pierce will also need all of the help he can get since the outside (OLB) position will be tested with unproven Wilkinson and DeOssie, and Clark a newcomer. Kiwi will more likely be moved back to DE since he has not shown great OLB instincts (especially if this is Strahan's last hurrah). Furthermore, there are no OLB's worth a first round pick in this 2008 draft (especially what will be available at pick #31). Therefore, drafting the next best talent at the MLB position would be a very wise move. What do you think? – Gary D.

I think there are several first round quality corners and there may be one or two remaining when we pick. If the safety Kenny Phillips is still there, he isn't much of a reach.  He fills a need and is the best of the safeties available this year.  If all the CBs and Phillips are in fact gone, then I have no problem with Connor.  I particularly like his versatility since he can play inside or outside.