PREVIEW: GAME 2: NEW YORK vs GREEN BAY

By Bob Folger

Our immediate reaction to the Giants’ opening day loss to the Cowboys was PANIC IN THE STREETS!!  We have calmed since Sunday night, thanks to the realization that, how hard it was to watch, it was only one game, on the road, under the lights.  And we all know how well the Giants play under the lights…

This week is a fresh start.  They win, and all is well with the Giants’ little world.  The question is, how will they win this game?  It won’t be easy (are there ever any easy wins for this franchise?).  Green Bay is a young team and they’re on the rise, but youth make mistakes.  Will the Giants make Green Bay pay for their mistakes?

Speaking of labels, what kind of team is this Giants squad?  Not young, not old.  Maybe middle of the road.  How about good on offense, bad on defense, not so bad on special teams?  That sound about right?

Giants on Offense

This week’s biggest issue is Eli Manning’s right shoulder.  Judging from last week’s performance, it looks like Manning has turned the corner.  Yeah, we may be jumping the gun a bit, but there were so many positives to get one excited– the improved accuracy, the calmness under pressure, the immaculate recognition and awareness of defenses, the pocket awareness, the toughness --  you name it.  Eli’s “comfort level” seems to have arrived and finally, he has the look of a franchise quarterback.

The question is, how will Eli look this week, if he even plays?  If he plays, how will his shoulder injury affect his play?  If he doesn’t play, how much will the coaches reign in backup Jared Lorenzen?  As with every week, there are tons of questions that can only be answered on Sunday and which make predicting this game difficult in general.

If Eli plays, expect more of the 50-50 mix that we saw vs. Dallas.  Without Brandon Jacobs, the run-heavy game plan that we envisioned going in is history.  Even when Jacobs returns from his injury, we doubt that a run-first mentality is the best idea.  Why?  Because the passing game is just too explosive and too darned efficient.  You have to run with the horse that gives you the best chance to win, and that horse, right now, is the passing game.

If the coaches do decide to most often use the pass to set up the run, as we expect, then we also think that this style may in fact be a better fit for this offensive line.  The Giants’ starting five is a bit undersized by NFL standards and is not quite best suited for that slug-it-out approach. 

They also lack a top-notch lead-blocking fullback (though it remains to be seen as to what Madison Hedgecock, who was claimed off waivers this week, brings to the table in that department), and their blocking tight end is a rookie. 

They can be physical but they can also be overpowered.  So it’s better to mix things up, utilize the great intelligence of this offensive line to adjust the running game on the fly, and ask the offense to carry this team until the defense finds a way to plugs its many leaks.

What will Green Bay do to stop the Giants on offense?  We think they match up pretty well.  Their two corners, Charles Woodson and Al Harris, have good size but average speed, which also can be said about the Giants’ starting wide outs, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer.  Green Bay’s safeties are young and prone to jumping routes and runs, so perhaps the deep middle off of play action might be a place to probe.

Green Bay’s front seven is very active, but not very big.  Their best defensive player is MLB Nick Barnett.  The Giants must get the running game in gear early to slow down this very active unit, and to keep both pass-rushing defensive ends, Aaron Kampman and Charles Jenkins, from crashing the pocket. 

The Green Bay middle may be susceptible between the tackles, so if the Giants find success there and Green Bay’s linebackers compensate inside, then bounces and sweeps outside might turn into big plays later on.

As with every week, it’s one big chess game.  Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride is very good at setting defenses up early for big plays later.  If he has Manning at his disposal, then all is well.  If Lorenzen is behind center, then it’s “batten down the hatches, call in the dogs and play it close to the vest,”  which will make for an ugly game and one that will be very difficult to win.

Giants on Defense
The best thing that could have happened to this beleaguered defense was to face a struggling offense, and that’s just what the Giants are getting this week.  Despite having legendary gunslinger Brett Favre behind center, this Green Bay offense really struggled last week, especially running the ball, and protecting Favre, who had to settle for lots of short passes.  That is not how Favre likes to play the game.  Expect some max-protect schemes early so Favre can take some shots up top, especially to attack the Giants’ corners.

The Giants defense against the short pass last week was horrible.  There will be much focus on the Giants’ linebackers, specifically Matthias Kiwanuka.  This first-time linebacker was so bad in coverage that legitimate thought is being given to moving him back to defensive end. 

If the coaches decide to go this way (if they don’t, do they jeopardize the season?) then expect Reggie Torbor to take over at SAM.  Torbor is no terror in coverage either, but he’s been through his own conversion from defensive end to linebacker, and played well in pre-season.

Antonio Pierce and Kawika Mitchell need to pick up their play, too.  Look for Green Bay to also attack the short zones with tight ends Donald Lee and Bubba Franks.  Look for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will most likely respond by getting safety Gibril Wilson closer to the line of scrimmage to help with the tight ends, neither of which is as good as Dallas’ Jason Witten, but both are experienced pass-catchers.

Green Bay starts a rookie, Brandon Jackson, at running back.  He’s still learning the game and has not flashed at all. They don’t use a fullback, which means lots of three-wide  and two-tight end sets.  It’s a passing offense designed to spread the field, which again is not a good match-up with the Giants’ linebackers or their secondary.  Expect to see a pass-heavy game from Green Bay, to attack the Giants’ primary weakness, pass defense.

To combat this strategy, pressure up the middle will be a Giants’ priority.  Fortunately for the Giants, this is where Green Bay is weakest.  They start two grizzled vets, Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, at tackle but their guards and center are mediocre.  This is where the defense should attack.  That means Barry Cofield and Fred Robbins need to really step it up this week to wreck some havoc. 

Look for huge defensive tackle Manny Wright to continue to receive significant snaps, as he has the talent and presence to develop into a real difference-maker.  The Giants haven’t had a real physical presence like him since the heyday of Rosie Grier (Keith Hamilton for a short while, too).  That’s a long time between road blocks.  We’d really like to see Wright given the chance to become that kind of player.

At defensive end, Justin Tuck will move to weak side DE, leaving Michael Strahan to attempt to pick up his level of play off of last week’s unacceptable effort.  Strahan played the run better last week than he rushed the passer.  As he gets his feet underneath him , expect Strahan to make a big play or two soon.  Hopefully, it will be this week.

The Giants’ secondary continues to be a major concern.  The corners are a big liability.  Even if Sam Madison returns, we just don’t think that R.W. McQuarters is starting material.  The rest of the Giants’ defensive backfield remains questionable, at least until they start playing with consistency and make some plays. 

Green Bay does have a dangerous veteran receiver in Donald Driver, but not much in the way of a deep threat.  It’s a week for this defense to get better.  Let’s see if they can pick it up and make a statement.

Giants on Special Teams
We were pleasantly surprised that the special teams played Dallas to a standoff last week.  Ahmad Bradshaw received decent blocking on his way to a 27.2 average kickoff return.  Both punt teams were solid.  Rookie safety Michael Johnson made a big play on kickoff coverage.  Lawrence Tynes kicked off very well, and was 3-for-3 on field goals.  Both rookie snappers were adequate-to-good. 

The problem is Green Bay pretty much won their opener on special teams.  They forced two turnovers on punt coverage, one of which resulted in a fumble recovery for a touchdown.  Their rookie kicker, Mason Crosby, had a spectacular start to his career, nailing an early 53-yard field goal and then the game-winning 42-yarder in overtime.

The Green Bay special teams will be flying all over the field on Sunday.  It’s imperative that the Giants’ return men focus on ball security first and foremost.  R.W. McQuarters and his sure-handed punt-catching may be the most important player on the field.  If the Giants can refrain from turning the ball over on special teams then they have an excellent chance of winning this game. 

Summary

Be patient on offense, stout on defense, and smart on special teams.  It sounds like a simple formula considering that NFL football is a complex game of strategy, exploiting match-ups, and adjustments.  The team that doesn’t “lose” the game via turnovers or frustration is usually the winner.  

And yet, last week the Giants won the turnover battle to no avail.  Which is why as much as we try to preview and predict these games, they never ever go as planned.  It’s the unknown that makes this game such a wonderful watch.