The Giants have defied not only the odds, but also logic.  They have beaten three divisional champs on the road.  They have yet to play a great game, a perfect game, and yet here they are in the biggest game of them all against the toughest opponent they’ll face probably ever. 

Do they need a “perfect game” to beat the Patriots?  The answer is “no.”  They simply need to make the Patriots play less than their best.  New England has been doing just enough to win, comfortably.  The Giants need to make them feel uncomfortable.  They need to make the Patriots play their game.

Giants on Defense
If match-ups are the key to winning football games, then the Giants are in trouble, as they seem to be every week.  In fact, they have very few big-time impact players to create match-ups in their own favor.  On defense, these players reside along the defensive line – Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck.  That’s it.  And yet, this unit continues to make plays, usually from unexpected sources.

Randy Moss is the NFL’s best wide receiver.  Nobody on the Giants can match up with him one-on-one.  So the Giants will do what everybody does, double-team Moss out of the game and deal with the rest of Tom Brady’s receiving corps.

Brady’s next two best receivers are possession guys, and they are near-impossible to stop.  Wes Welker is the very best possession receiver in the game, bar none.  Kevin Faulk is the best third-down back in the game, bar none. 

Talk about fire power!  You can’t really stop these two, you just try and slow them down.  Then there is Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, Laurence Maroney, tight end Ben Watson, and an offensive line that is as solid as they come.

What are the Giants best matchups?  Michael Strahan vs. Nick Kaczur, and Osi Umenyiora vs. Matt Light, as we think the Giants have the potential to dominate both matchups. 

Pressure will be the key to Sunday’s game.  The Giants must bring it, and not only with four rushers.  Steve Spagnuolo will mix in his blitzes, as he does every week.  We don’t expect to see a different game plan on Sunday, but it goes without saying that the best way to slow down this offense is to hit quarterback Tom Brady as often as you can.

Another strategy will be to load up on the secondary, play the nickel and dime exclusively, and hand the Pats the invitation to run the ball.  It’s a way of limiting possessions and keeping Brady from getting into a rhythm. 

This game will probably be played with the roof closed if game day forecasts for rain come to fruition.  The elements will be primed for a passing game.  Look for the Giants to try and dupe the Patriots into running the ball.

We think the Giants coaches will ask a lot of rookie defensive tackle Jay Alford on Sunday.  He will partner up with Justin Tuck in the inside for most of the day, giving the Giants as much mobility as they can get on the field.  How well Alford holds up, especially against the run when it does come, will be a big key.

Ultimately though, how do you slow down the most prolific offense in NFL history?  You go after the guy who really makes it special, Tom Brady.  You have to pressure, hit, and harass Brady for four quarters.  It’s really the only way.  Sitting back just won’t get it done.  And when the Patriots enter the red zone you have to find ways to make them settle for field goals. 

No, it won’t be easy.  Whoever said that winning championships was supposed to be easy?

Question:  Will Gerris Wilkinson be given as much playing time as he did in Week 16? 
This second-year linebacker played well in relief of Kawika Mitchell, who left the game early with a knee injury.  Wilkinson showed some chops in coverage and flashed against the run.  Will the coaches substitute Wilkinson for Mitchell freely?  We think they might.

Giants on Offense
To defeat these Patriots, you have to limit that great offense’s touches.  Like the Giants did against the Bills, you control the clock and you make every possession count.  But you don’t necessarily have to control the clock on the ground.

QB Eli Manning will be Sunday’s key performer.  The Patriots will take away the Giants early running game with nose tackle Vince Wilfork and defensive ends Richard Seymour and Ty Warren, who form as powerful a front threesome as there is in football.  In fact, running left against Seymour and outside linebacker Adalius Thomas is simply an exercise in futility and shouldn’t even be tried.  They are just too good.

If the Giants find any seams, it will be running at Warren and outside linebacker Mike Vrabel along the edge.  Chris Snee and Kareem McKenzie will have to have huge games to create this advantage. 

The other way to run the ball is out of the shotgun, which the Giants have done so well all year long.  We think the Patriots will be looking for it, which is why we see the Giants throwing the ball a lot, especially early.

We wouldn’t be averse to seeing the no-huddle on an early possession, just to see if the Giants can force a long drive and keep the Patriots front seven on the field.  They are very big but the linebackers are not fast and the shotgun will spread them out.  The Giants must attack the Patriots’ weakness, their coverage, early and often.  They are particularly weak in the middle of the field.  This is where the Giants can make some plays.

The Giants two-headed monster at running back will not have a big role early, except in the screen game.  We expect the coaches to put the ball in the hands of their best-performing offensive player right now, Eli Manning. 

We think they will ask their quarterback to win them a championship.  The game has finally slowed down for Manning.  It’s time to reap the benefits of what four years of hard work has wrought.

Question:  How will the coaches utilize their two rookie tight ends? 
With Kevin Boss getting more looks every week in the passing game, Michael Matthews has become a forgotten man.  Might the coaches slip in a play or two for this raw-boned kid (Matthews)?  If he has shown the ability in practice (and we think he has), perhaps the favorable elements is all this kid needs to actually hold onto a ball or two, perhaps in the middle of the field.

Giants on Special Teams
The Giants will have major concerns when kickoff returner Ellis Hobbs and punt returner Wes Welker get their hands on the ball.  The Giants coverage teams, so good of late, must continue their top-notch play.

The Giants have a good one in kickoff returner Domenik Hixon and in punt returner R.W. McQuarters, whose two fumbles against Green Bay raised a huge red flag.  McQuarters must return to his ball security days of yore for the Giants to have a chance to win. 

We think Lawrence Tynes will kick well on Sunday.  His great game-winning kick in Green Bay should have injected him with a surge of confidence. Perhaps he will be the unexpected edge that the Giants receive this week, as they seem to find a new unexpected hero with each passing week. Tynes’ kickoffs have been fine in good weather, and should help his coverage teams control Hobbs. 

Jeff Feagles must find the fountain of youth and re-discover his great directional punting game.  A two-week rest and kicking in good elements will certainly help.

Finally, maybe it’s time for David Tyree to make a big play.  The Patriots don’t punt the ball an awful lot.  When given the chance, Tyree must do all he can to flash into the backfield and get a hand on one.  He’s gotten close several times of late.  Perhaps this is the week that Tyree recaptures his former Pro Bowl magic.